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Belmont Ridge Expansion to Six Lane Highway Instead of Four

Discussion in 'Broadlands Community Issues' started by OSimpson, Apr 7, 2012.

  1. OSimpson

    OSimpson Certified Master Naturalist

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    Belmont Ridge Expansion to Six Lane Highway Instead of Four

    On April 10th, the Board of Supervisors will hold a public hearing at 6pm to update the County Transportation Plan to further expand Belmont Ridge Rd. and Northstar Blvd. past the four lanes, shoulders, and safety improvements needed to a six lane highway similar in size to Rt. 7 or Rt. 28. This highway would connect in the south to the Tri-County Parkway in Prince William, and opens the door for the 50-mile Outer Beltway. A six-lane north-south highway on Belmont Ridge won't fix Loudoun residents' traffic problems. It will only make them worse, by inviting a new wave of sprawl and the increased traffic that comes with it.

    Loudoun County is fast-tracking the approval process on this road expansion. The Board of Supervisors is taking public comment, and possibly voting, on April 10th, only two weeks after the Planning Commission introduced this possibility to the public!

    Take Action Now and attend the hearing Tuesday at 6:00pm in the Loudoun Government Center, 1 Harrison St. SE, Leesburg. This proposal is the first item on the agenda, so get there a little early and sign up to speak at the desk in the front of the room.

    Kirkpatrick Farms, Stone Ridge, South Riding, Arcola, Brambleton, Broadlands, Ashburn, Belmont, River Creek, Lansdowne are just a few of the potentially affected communities.

    What's going on?

    The Board plans to expand all of Belmont Ridge Road and Northstar Blvd. south of Braddock Rd. to the Prince William County line from two to six lanes. The 2010 County Transportation Plan currently calls for Belmont Ridge Road to be expanded to four lanes and Northstar Blvd. to remain two. This proposed six lane corridor would be connected to the Tri-County Parkway in Prince William which would connect down to I-95 creating an Outer Beltway which will invite a new wave of sprawl. The community has fought this road for over 20 years because it threatens to open up large swaths of land to residential development, threatens to exacerbate traffic problems on already congested east-west transportation corridors, negatively impacts nearby communities, and wastes valuable tax payer dollars on an unnecessary road expansion rather than on addressing east-west transportation issues.

    In 2010 a local community group, Citizens for a Countywide Tranportation Plan (CCTP), was concerned about the proposed revisions to the plan and commissioned a study to have an independent analysis of publicly available information by Smart Mobility. The resulting study revealed the flaws in the modeling. It also pointed to more and better solutions for handling congestion in Loudoun.

    When the Countywide Transportation Plan, was last reviewed in 2010, Loudoun citizens made clear that roads through Loudoun neighborhoods should be limited to two or four lanes--for good reasons. VDOT's design standards for six-lane roads, including wider lanes and wide, clear shoulders, cue drivers to shoot through at highway speeds. Six-laning these roads would make it dangerous or impossible to cross the street in your own neighborhood.

    For more details on the proposal read the staff report from Loudoun County planning department.

    A six lane highway will be similar in scale to Rt. 7 and Rt. 28


    Do we Need to Turn Belmont Ridge Rd Into A Highway?
    Belmont Ridge Rd. has safety issues and some traffic issues that may warrant expansion to four lanes but there is little justification for expanding the road to six lanes, the equivalent of Rt. 7 or nearby Rt. 28. Below is a comparison of the 2010 traffic counts from VDOT on Belmont Ridge Rd. and Gum Springs Rd. (the closest north-south connection to where Northstar is planned).

    Roads for Proposed Expansion to Six-Lanes
    Belmont Ridge Rd. - 13,000 Daily Vehicle Trips (segment from the Greenway to Route 7)
    Gum Spring Rd. - 8,200 Daily Vehicle Trips (segment from Prince William County line to Braddock Rd.)

    Existing Roads with Six-Lanes Configuration Similar to Belmont and Northstar Proposed Widths
    Route 7 - 84,000 Daily Vehicle Trips (segment between Claiborne Parkway and Route 28)
    Route 28 - 111,000 Daily Vehicle Trips (segment from Dulles Toll Road to Route 7)

    These comparisons demonstrate that there is little pressure on these roads currently. So why does Loudoun County's model's indicate that there is a need for major expansion?

    The Loudoun model is based on an outdated model created by the Transportation Planning Board. This model is not "industry accepted" for planning of multi modal transportation systems and does not reflect the County goals for compact, mixed use development, highly connected street networks, and reduced development in the transition area. The model is known to have serious flaws and falls short of federal guidelines. The Loudoun County model is modestly improved, but still falls short of federal guidelines used by the Federal Highway Administration, having nearly twice the deviation allowed.

    The Loudoun model substantially increases traffic projections for major corridors, especially those in the rural and transition areas. The model substantially over estimates the circumferential traffic and includes excessive rates of commuting traffic from external locations such as Maryland to Fairfax commutes. These flaws in the model lead to the erroneous conclusions about needed road improvements on Belmont Ridge Rd. and Northstar Blvd.

    Will this Expansion Help Ease Traffic?

    No, it will likely encourage a new wave of sprawl that will encourage more traffic. Building a six-lane regional highway through Loudoun will hurt our neighborhoods and it won't help traffic because:

    1) The primary traffic problem in Loudoun involves east-west commuting and this north-south road will divert hundreds of millions of dollars of limited transportation funding, from improvements that address the real problem.

    2) The highway will open up Loudoun County's semi-rural "Transition Zone" and Prince William County's "Rural Crescent" to vastly increased development, adding tens of thousands of cars to already crowded east-west commuter roads.

    3) Many justify the highway by saying that it would provide better southern tractor-trailer access to Dulles Airport, helping to create a major freight hub. But instead of using Rt 28 at the airport's doorstep, thousands more trucks on this roadway would have to join existing east/west traffic to get to the airport, 4+ miles to the east.
    For more information about why this expansion will not ease traffic, check out our Myths and Facts page.

    Conclusion:

    This project is a wasteful use of tax payer funds that will hurt the quality of life in our neighborhoods, encourage more unsustainable sprawling development, and further exacerbate our real east-west traffic problems.

    Piedmont Environmental Council is urging the County to retain the recently adopted 2010 County Transportation Plan language keeping Belmont Ridge Rd. four lanes maximum and Northstar at two. We are recommending a "complete streets" approach which includes better planning for safety, altenative means of transportation, and buffering of adjacent communities.

    Please contact the Board of Supervisors before April 10th and attend the April 10th public hearing at 6pm at the Loudoun County Government Center.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. vacliff

    vacliff "You shouldn't say that."

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    Belmont Ridge is currently listed as a 4 lane road in a 6 lane right of way. From the early 90's until about a year ago, it was always planned as a 6 lane road in a 6 lane right of way. It is simply being restored to its original designation. It was reduced to 4-lanes for political reasons, but accomplished NOTHING since the 6 lane right of way was preserved.

    There is only the assumption of increased sprawl. In fact, the last plan I saw did not have an exit from the parkway from I-66 to Rte 50, surrounded by a protected parkland buffer to ensure there WOULD NOT be any sprawl associated with the road.

    This is a commonly used process of double advertising. There is still two public hearings. One in front of the Planning Commission and one in front of the Board of Supervisors.

    This study was also flawed. The assumptions built into it were not even close to the current configuration of our residential/road/business network.


    I think it is simply called planning for the future. Belmont Ridge was planned for 6 lanes long before communities such as Brambleton, Village of Waxpool, Broadlands, etc. existed. That is why the right-of-way is already in place for most of the road. The county required the right of way reservation whn these communities were built.
    It has been planned for decades, but we still have only two lanes. Someday, we may have four. My guess is it will be several more decades before the road ever gets widened to 6 lanes.

    As far as the need for commuters in Loudoun County, I, and several of my co-workers, would use this new road daily to get to work.
    I could write pages regaling you with the horrendous stories of my north-south commute on Rte 15 and Rte 659.
     
  3. OSimpson

    OSimpson Certified Master Naturalist

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    I am not convinced that with assumption of what may or may not happen one day, guessing that it will be decades before the road ever gets widened to 6 lanes, or this plan was done before the communities were even existed is the way decisions should be made. There are other roads or shopping centers that are built that makes one think who designed it. For example, try to go in and out of Wegmans, or Rt 7, or make a left turn from BWHS after drop off.... very scary stories there too, I can add to the lists of poorly developed.

    Additional reading:

    Each New Highway Built Drains a City's Population by 18%

    How Highways Kill Cities
    A new study reveals that with the construction of each freeway in a major city, population declines by an estimated 18%. Which is a pretty serious figure. The reasons for this aren't revelatory--highways make commuting greater distances possible, and provide arteries to towns outside the city, where those who can afford to commute can build bigger homes for less money. Which is pretty much how suburbs were born in the first place. But it's fascinating to dissect how this happens, and to what extent, as the new study by Nathaniel Baum-Snow does. Here's Nathaniel Baum-Snow talking about his study in an interview with Planetizen:

    if suburb A builds a highway to connect to suburb B, that's going to effect the distribution of commutes not only between those suburbs but also the commutes in the region as a whole. So there are going to be these externalities where someone in suburb C has a faster way to get to work, so they're going to start using it and filling up this new highway. And a business downtown might say, hey, there's this new infrastructure, let's go locate out there and I can have a lot more space to work with. So anytime one part of a region changes something, it's going to effect population and employment throughout the metropolitan area


    So essentially, both employers and workers, once centralized, are now more apt to spread out, and find a location along the highway where there's more space, or it's less expensive to live or operate. The employers that skip town then inevitably bring their job openings along with them. As a result, the net effect is that 18% of a major city's population gets drained.

    Highways Between Suburbs

    Interestingly, after this has happened, the bulk of the commuting shifts to only minimally involve the metropolitan area, which was ostensibly what the highway was originally built to serve in the first place.

    the nature of residential and employment locations have changed dramatically, but the nature of commuting patterns have also changed dramatically. Now, the vast majority of commutes do not involve the central city at all, even commutes made by people who live in metropolitan areas, whereas in 1960, the majority certainly involved central cities either as origins or destinations or both. And that's a major change. I think the next step is to try to understand all the things that generated that change.

    So now, people are commuting on highways built to help people go to and from a central city without ever even going to that central city. They're going instead from say, a suburb outside the city to an office park in another suburb outside the city. And it seems to me that change may be simply that the central city has been made unnecessary to fulfillment of the immediate needs of an individual--employment, goods, and housing are all available outside of it, often for cheaper prices.

    As a result of all this, we're left with smaller cities and suburbs that are much more difficult to connect via mass transit, and the dependence on cars is perpetuated.
    _____________

    So, we should just allow it to be prepped for 6 lanes because it may or may not happen in decades- we may or not be around so why worry.

    This makes me think, why not build bike paths to and from BWHS from Broadlands and Brambleton instead of making it impossible...
     
  4. Sasquatch519

    Sasquatch519 Member

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    This road may be important for Ashburn's future, I don't know, but I'm more concerned with the major traffic problems we have right now than the ones that haven't occurred yet. I only really ever see problems on 659 around the intersection with Evergreen Mills.

    Connect Glouchester Pkwy and Nokes Bvld. Connect LCP to 606 just south of the Greenway (Westwind Drive is the road chosen on the county transportation plan). 2 miles of road will take half the traffic off of Waxpool. Much more bang for your buck and fixes an immediate problem.
     
  5. flynnibus

    flynnibus Well-Known Member Forum Staff

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    But this is where the growth is (if you haven't driven down there lately.. go look.. its all clear cut south of Brambleton now). The other side of Rt50 is all boomed up now too.

    Remember this is about the County Transportation PLAN - not what they are building now. By having this on the books as this type of road, they can shape future road projects there to conform to this plan.

    This isn't about funding a current expansion - this is about the blueprint for roads in the county.
     
  6. OSimpson

    OSimpson Certified Master Naturalist

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    VOW is alerting their homowners

    [​IMG]

    Board of Supervisiors Hearing
    Don't Let Belmont Ridge Road Look Like Route 28


    Dear Neighbors -

    Tomorrow night, April 10th, the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors (BOS) will be considering amending the Countrywide Transportation Plan (CTP) to expand Belmont Ridge road to a 6 LANE roadway with 14 foot tall high sound barrier walls. These walls would likely be erected between Belmont Ridge Road and our community and would probably have a very negative impact to Village of Waxpool's property values. Below is artist rendering of what VDOT has proposed:

    [​IMG]

    As a community we need either the five of the nine members of Board of Supervisors to oppose the proposal…or for them to vote in favor of Supervisor Shawn Williams planned amendment to limit Belmont Ridge Roady to 4 lanes. Shawn has replied to many in the community who wrote him that he opposes making Belmont Ridge 6 lanes, but does support 4 lanes from Crosson Lane to Route 7. The Board of Supervisors Chairman, Scott York, has stated that he wants to see what the turnout is from the community on Tuesday in order to make his final decision.


    It is important that if you can make it that you please share your concerns about this.

    Meeting Location:
    Loudoun Government Center
    1 Harrision S.E., Leesburg VA

    6PM Tuesday

    Regards,
    Villages of Waxpool Board Of Directors
     
  7. beahmer

    beahmer Member

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    At least maybe having this in the "plan" will ensure the funding is secured by proffers,etc.. so that another Waxpool doesnt happen again!
     
  8. Steve Campot

    Steve Campot Broadlands Real Estate Broker

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    If my house backed or almost backed to Belmont Ridge I would sell it ASAP. I believe the county will be under immense pressure from the state to approve the current 6 lane proposal.
     
  9. flynnibus

    flynnibus Well-Known Member Forum Staff

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    Did you miss the facts presented by Cliff before.. about how this was already a 6 lane road in previous plans?
     
  10. GAJones

    GAJones New Member

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    The fact is that Loudoun County roadways often changed in the CTP as the County evolves. Some with more lanes, some with less. There was a lot of new info learned during the last CTP, which affirmed that BRR dones not need to be built out to 6 lanes (which is why former Supervisor Miller and why the current Supervisor Shawn Williams opposes the expansion). Yes additional ROW is preserved IF additional expansion is needed (so again, why the change back to 6 lanes). The impact to residents living along BRR (including Broadlands)will be much less (especially if the roadway is expanded from the outward from the revised centerline -- which is what Cliff and ALL other PC members supported last year).
     
  11. Mike-and-Kim

    Mike-and-Kim Member

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    When we were looking years ago we checked out the Carr houses along Belmont Ridge, which we really liked. In fact we went back several times. Asked the sales guy about Belmont Ridge widening and he claimed to know nothing...we looked at it and said if that ever did get widened it would be just a little close and the road noise would drive me nuts.
     
  12. OSimpson

    OSimpson Certified Master Naturalist

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    It is good to look at many other examples and how other communities have been effected with big roads and what it does and it doesn't bring. Or can we even know for sure. The bottom line is that communities that are becoming more and more appealing and on high demand are not traditional suburbia anymore. We all have invested in our communities in many ways including financially.

    Great information about how communities are changing here:
    http://www.walklive.org/project/videos/

    How Not To Forecast Traffic
    How a Washington state transportation council misuses statistics

    Oh, jeez, this is like shooting fish in a barrel: a picture-perfect demonstration of how not to estimate future traffic volumes.

    On the website of the Southwest Washington Regional Transportation Council, I ran across this doozy of a chart, showing projections for future traffic across the Columbia River between Portland, OR, and Vancouver, WA.
    [​IMG]

    It seems that the chartmaker used a linear regression (which comes standard on most spreadsheet programs) to draw a straight line through traffic data from the early 1960s through 2010, and continue that line through 2030. Then—apparently with a straight face—the Transportation Council presents this line as a “projection” for future traffic volumes, “should current trends continue.”

    And since the state of Washington itself hosts the page, you’d be forgiven for thinking that this kind of linear regression is a reasonable way to project future traffic volumes.

    But wait, I can use Excel too! Here’s my take, based on the very same data plus a wee bit of historical context:

    [​IMG]

    When you present the chart this way, traffic across the Columbia River divides into three phases:

    The first phase (1961 through 1982), when there was just one bridge across the Columbia north of Portland, saw fairly consistent traffic growth.
    The second phase (1983 through 2001)—while both the I-5 and I-205 bridges were open, gas prices remained low, the Baby Boomers entered their peak driving years, and the Northwest economy hummed—saw even faster growth in traffic.

    During phase three (2002 to the present), gas prices started going up in earnest, rush-hour traffic on the CRC bridges neared saturation, the economy roller-coastered, and the Baby Boomers aged past their peak driving years—and traffic essentially flatlined.

    So if you run a linear regression from “current trends”—where “current” is defined as the last decade, excluding what happened in the 1960s through 2001—you wind up with a “projection” of essentially zero traffic growth through 2030.

    [​IMG]

    But more importantly, a linear regression on this data set can generate all sorts of different lines, depending on where you set the starting and ending points. In the animation to the right, I ran a series of linear regressions on the CRC traffic volume data. All of the regressions use 2010 as the endpoint, but the start date ranges from 1983 to 2004. The “projection forward should current trends continue”—the expression used in the transportation council’s chart—is practically whatever you want it to be; all you have to do is choose what you mean by “current trends.”

    Luckily for you, I won’t insult your intelligence by claiming that any of these linear regressions represents a legitimate prediction of future traffic trends. An Excel linear regression just doesn’t count as a forecast. So just to be clear: I’m NOT predicting that traffic between Vancouver and Portland will remain flat indefinitely. All I’m saying is that running a linear regression, with no other information for context, is a nonsensical way to make a forecast of the future.

    Instead, a real estimate of future traffic would look at macro-economic forecasts, land use projections, future gas prices and fleet mpg, population growth, population age structure, recent trends by age and demographic groups, and a host of other factors. Even with all of that baked in, of course, a forecast will almost certainly be wrong; very few predictions, even the most sophisticated and thoughtful, hit their mark. (For example, the actual track record of the Puget Sound’s transportation model is simply laughable.) But at least the Council would be able to explain their projections without getting red in the face.

    As it stands now, though, a regional transportation planning group has presented a “projection” that’s essentially a meaningless, cherry-picked line. At the same time, I notice that the Southwest Washington Regional Transportation Council has voted to support a much wider I-5 bridge. One has to wonder: was their decision to support the wider CRC influenced by their simplistic projections? Or did they create the projection to help justify a decision they were going to make anyway? Either way, it’s a bit embarrassing.

    ________________

    Good to hear from Steve Campot Realtor, about his view on real estate value, and Mike about how his decision was effected by this road as well.

    Thank you.
     
  13. vacliff

    vacliff "You shouldn't say that."

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    You may well be right. The road might not be need to be 6 lanes.
    If they would ever finish the small missing piece of Claiborne, a lot of traffic will probably move off Belmont Ridge.
    My point, again, is that Belmont Ridge has been planned for 6 lanes before it was tweaked a year ago for political reasons.
    Because of the preserved 6 lane right-of-way, this is, in my opinion, much ado about nothing.
     
  14. GAJones

    GAJones New Member

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    Agree that 6 lanes not needed. But just because BRR was once designated 6 lanes doesn't mean that it should be set in stone. As you said, Claiborne, LC Parkway, and other north-south roadways have (or will be) extended so BRR doesn't have to handle all of the north-south traffic (putting aside that the data used in the model has serious flaws in the first place).

    Remember TOO that other roadways (such as Claiborne, Ashburn Village, etc were also being sized to 6 lanes (that is until Lori and Scott got involved and decided to reduce them back to 4 lanes). The decision to reduce BRR to 4 lanes was no different...although there was the "re-vote" because Sally had a senior moment (her position on BRR had always been to limit it to 4 lanes....but the voting procedure was confusing at best).

    There are advantages to designating the road to 4 lanes. For instance, when expanding BRR from 2 to 4 lanes, it could be expanded from the centerline-out, thus providing adequate buffer space between the edge of the expanded roadway and the existing homes (homes that were not built for a 6 lane 150 ROW BECAUSE AT THE TIME THE BRR WAS DESIGNATED TO BE BUILT IN A 120 FT ROW (NOT 150 ROW) AND BECUASE THE COUNTY DIDN'T ACCOUNT FOR THE ULTIMATE RELOCATED CENTERLINE (MT HOPE CHRUCH CAN'T ABSORD EXPANSION ON THEIR SIDE OF THE ROAD)...SO THE NEW CENTERLINE WILL NEED TO SHIFT IN THE OTHER DIRECTION....ALL OF WHICH PROVIDES FAR LESS BUFFER SPACE BETWEEN THE EXPANDED ROADWAY AND EXISTING HOMES)....
     
  15. Steve Campot

    Steve Campot Broadlands Real Estate Broker

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    Most "Sales Guys" at new construction sites are not licensed real estate agents and therefore are not under any legal pressure to tell the truth or play by a fair set of rules. Always bring a buyer's agent with you.
     
  16. vacliff

    vacliff "You shouldn't say that."

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    If you want to know how close the road could be to the homes on the east side of Belmont Ridge, look at where the fire hydrants are located. They are outside the right of way for the 6 lane road.
     
  17. GAJones

    GAJones New Member

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    The fire hydrants in the common area will have to be relocated.

    They were put there when BRR was designated to be in a 120 ft ROW (versus the change to 150 ROW)...and BEFORE the County realized that BRR's centerline of the raod has to shift to the east.

    The distance between the cemetery to the backyard of the home located directly across the street is ~170 feet (and VDOT has said that they may actually need more ROW to support the needed curvature for a 6 lane raodway IF the speed is to remain above 45mph).

    This is why when BRR is expanded from 2 to 4 lanes, we need the roadway to be built from the relocated centerline-out (rather than putting in a large median like they did on Crosen Rd) to avoid the edge of the roadway from being situated too close to existing homes.

    There are other developments on BRR with similar issues further North.
     
  18. We Love Disney

    We Love Disney New Member

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    Was anyone able to make it to the meeting last night and what was the outcome?
     
  19. GAJones

    GAJones New Member

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    118 emails were sent to the BOS before the public hearing:
    - 116 were opposed to the expansion
    - 1 was in favor
    - 1 was undecided

    At the meeting, the Washington Airport Task Force, the commercial real estate development association, and the Northern Virginia Transportation Alliance (i.e.road builders) spoke in favor of the expansion.....but the majority of people attending were local businessmen and residents living in the community from the Village of Waxpool, Broadlands, Belmont Country Club, Belmont Ridge, Brambleton, etc....and the PEC.

    Chairman York said that the real reason for the meeting was to increase the 2-lane section of Gum Springs Road south of Braddock road..."if the ROW would not have been restricted on Gum Springs Road during the last CTP....today's meeting probably would have never occured".

    The BOS decided to defer the vote until May 2nd as they try to reach a "compromise" to reduce BRR to 4 lanes in a 120-150 ROW while increasing the ROW further south.

    Here's the link to the AshburnPatch article: http://ashburn.patch.com/articles/compromise-anticipated-on-belmont-ridge-northstar-plans
     
  20. vacliff

    vacliff "You shouldn't say that."

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    Well, that's not what I was told by Loudoun Water when I asked about this issue, and I specifically had them confirm the hydrants were outside the 6 lane ROW.
    I'm not saying you are incorrect, just what was told to me by Loudoun Water.
     

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