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Rumor check

Discussion in 'Jobs and Help Wanted' started by Buffettbassman, Mar 9, 2007.

  1. Buffettbassman

    Buffettbassman Troll Extrordinare'

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    A question for those of you who have knowledge of such things...

    Can anyone substantiate the rumor that Loudoun County has the highest number of real estate foreclosures in Virginia? If so, why do you think that is?

    I find it inconsistent vis e vie, if Loudoun County has the highest average household income of any place of like size in the nation (or so I've read ~ $98K/year)...then it's counter-intuitive to me that it would have the highest number of foreclosures.

    but maybe not...
     
  2. woopity

    woopity cdubs ya know!

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    i'm curious to see if anyone can substantiate this....
    i'm also curious to see how many people in the next few years bend over and take it when their ARM's adjust on the interest only mortgages...if you can't afford principle, you shouldn't have bought the house. i could've cut my mortgage by $500 a month by not paying principle...but after a few years, i may have just paid off the amount of loss i'll take on this overpriced box of pine :)
     
  3. tyger31

    tyger31 Member

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    Loudoun County may have the average highest income, but I think a lot of people over extend themselves...bigger houses, cars, etc.
     
  4. Lee

    Lee Permanent Vacation

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    This average is such a joke. The reason the average is so high is because there are very few poor people here or lower middle class like in other places that brings the average way down. What we have is a lot of upper middle income and I will put it to the low side of upper middle income.

    Yes I do believe many here increased their lifestyle from borrowing from the equity on there homes especially with double digit increases over the last several years.

    Interesting to see what happens in the future.

    My real estate classes have been a real eye opener to what is really happening in the market here, not the BS you get from the agents.

    Many People still think their homes are worth more then they will sell for. People still think the worst is about over.

    May even get much worse, depending on what happens with the future job situation especially when Bush is gone and the crazy mortgages people got over the last years.

    911 may have skewed the job situation out here and as people get tired of crazy spending on the war and useless technologies to fight terrorism that could hurt job growth out here for the short term.

    Projects such as One Loudoun and The Moore piece are necessary for HEALTH OF THIS Loudoun ECONOMY.

    Hughes bio tech can also diversify the Loudoun county.

    Of course the subway in 7 to 10 years will be the next magical boost to Loudoun.

    My biggest concern is jobs after bush is gone, Things out here were not booming big time until 911.

    Lee j
     
  5. Buffettbassman

    Buffettbassman Troll Extrordinare'

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    I often tell people living here is a mixed blessing. We're blessed with good incomes...we're cursed by highly inflated prices.

    But there are worse places...like I said before, Charlottesville's housing market is not far under ours in pricing but the incomes are pitiful in comparison. They consistently have some of the highest gas prices in the state.

    Crazy...
     
  6. Nova Native

    Nova Native New Member

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    Lee,

    There are a lot of technology jobs around here. I think you are overstating the an economic lull around here in the early 2000's. The Nasdaq peaked in mid March 2000, then began its freefall. I was worried about the economy then. 9/11 came 18 months later. I don't think the number of jobs lost and the economic uncertainty around the Tech bubble bursting was as devestating to our local economy as you imply. If National unemployment peaked at 7%, I would be surprised if Loudoun got much over 5%. People may have been a little worried, but it never got that bad (Unlike localized recessions in Texas because of the oil industry). You make it sound like this place was going to become like the Rust belt if more jobs had become created by the government for National Security and Military conctracting. Although I am sure these new jobs helped the economy, I would not cite this as the only nor necessarily the most important reason. And while Bush has spent too much money expanding the Government and its contractors (especially around here), I doubt that we are going to see sizable cuts if and when a Democrat gets elected.

    As to interest only mortgages, I agree that squeezing into a house with an I/O adjustable rate mortgage that may be more than one can afford when the payment adjusts upward is a bad idea. They can be a good idea when one has either a short term income drop (e.g. going to school part time or living on one income while children are small) or a short term expense increase (e.g. putting capital into a new business). When you are pretty sure that you will be able to meet a higher payment in the future, I/O mortgages can be a good idea, the only 2 downsides being a slightly higher interest rate (1/8 to 1/4 a point higher), and a risking higher interest rates in the future if it is an adjustable rate as most are.

    The paternalist in me agrees that for most, these are often a bad idea. But for fiscally shrewd people they can often be of use in particular situations. I am not in the mortgage business. Any problems with these type of loans lie with the incomptetence of the loan officer or the homeowner for whom it is a bad idea.
     
  7. wahoogeek

    wahoogeek New Member

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    quick google lists places like Michigan and Colorado counties as number one... like 1 in 350 homes...
     
  8. GeauxTigers

    GeauxTigers Member

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    I agree with Nova Native. The tech bubble and consequent burst certainly affected things around here and mostly before 9/11. Between mid-2000 and pre-9/11 I remember many tech companies having several rounds of layoffs. I personally survived a few myself and at the same time watched all my stock options sink to nothing. I had at least three friends out of work for months at a time. This was all tech and was all before 9/11. At the time I had a small 2nd story apartment in Herndon and was invited to move into a much larger 1st floor with garage (same complex) for the same rate just to help give the impression the complex was lived in. They were near full in 1999 when I moved in. I am guessing that the late-90's tech bubble and the "it can only go up" thinking caused many people to jump into 5-7 year ARMs that were just barely within their range. Here we are 5-7 years later. I could be wrong but I'd be willing bet that a significant portion of what we see is related to that.
     
  9. tyger31

    tyger31 Member

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    Buffettbassman - My son went to UVA for four years and I always filled my tank in Charlottesville for the trip back because their prices were always lower that around our area. This wasn't cheap gas...we're talking Exxon. I was just down there a couple weeks ago for a basketball game and again - their gas was less.
     
  10. Nova Native

    Nova Native New Member

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    Maybe the moderator should move this to another thread.
     
  11. Buffettbassman

    Buffettbassman Troll Extrordinare'

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    Yes...sorry...should be moved.
     
  12. wahoogeek

    wahoogeek New Member

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    doh! I misread and thought you were asking nationally! so again, googled data from August 2006 states:

    With one new foreclosure filing for every 1,387 households, Prince William County, Va., documented the metro area’s highest foreclosure rate. The county recorded 71 properties entering some stage of foreclosure during the month.

    Other counties with the metro’s five highest foreclosure rates included Spotsylvania County, Va., with one new foreclosure filing for every 1,449 households; Loudon County, Va., with one new foreclosure filing for every 1,594 households; and Stafford County, Va., with one new foreclosure filing for every 1,653 households.
     
  13. Buffettbassman

    Buffettbassman Troll Extrordinare'

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    Not number one in Virginia...but number three.

    Another thing that makes you go hmmmmm......
     
  14. Lee

    Lee Permanent Vacation

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    And the so called richest or highest income county in the US

    Now that makes you really go Hmmmmmmmmmm

    In the building business we call it funny money!!!!!!!!!!

    Lee j
     
  15. dcdavis

    dcdavis Ooops!!

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    I really don't see what the highest household income has to do with foreclosures. As someone else mentioned, people tend to overextend themselves. If they can afford a SFD or an extra 1,000 sq ft, then they go for it. And with housing prices what they are....

    I just don't think there's a connection.
     
  16. MD_boy

    MD_boy New Member

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    It’s not so much the interest only loans that are the problem. They have been around for years. If you have an I/O loan, and put a decent amount of money down, you have little to worry about. When that loan balloons after five years and you have no plans to sell, you simply refinance. The real problem will be for the folks who have negative amortization loans who put little or no money down. These people may be unable to refinance because the outstanding balance could be more that the value of the home.
     
  17. cindyb

    cindyb New Member

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    We had a negative amortization loan when we bought a house in CA ... it was the only way we could get in to the market there. We refinanced as fast as we could (within 6 months). There was no way I wanted to have one of those loans for a long time. It was smart though for us because it allowed us to get in the market while prices were still rising. Prices took a slight dip 2 years later but pretty much were on the rise for the 7 years we owned the house. I can see someone could be in real trouble with a negative amorization loan if they buy right before prices fall.
     

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