Loudoun Rail now

If your concerned about rail to Loudoun, please visit this website. I for one am in Favor of it, it may be a expensive to have, but it's more expensive not to.


http://www.loudounrailnow.com/


Dates you should be award of

May 24 -- Public Outreach Meeting: Mill Run Elementary School Gymnasium, Ashburn, 7 PM

May 30 -- Public Outreach #2: Freedom High School Cafeteria, South Riding, 7 PM

June 4 -- Loudoun County Government Center – Dulles Rail Public Input Session, 6:30 PM

July 3 -- 120-day Decision Deadline (Louddoun BOS Meets on July 2nd and 3rd)

 

I plan on attending the May 24 meeting mostly to just inform myself. I haven't followed that closely and I don't know what the issues are. From what little I know, Metro seems like a good idea to me because 1) close proximity to public transportation should increase our property values, 2) it should allow businesses to move further west which should also increase our property values, and 3) it would make commuting from Ashburn to DC more palatable, which should also increase our property values.

Why are some people opposing it? Can someone explain both sides of any issues out there?

 

I for one, do not want an increase in property value as long as I intend to stay in the area, nor do I want to be in close proximity to mass transit. But I do not oppose it and will probably use it often.

 

Here's a good recent article to tells the story:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...-silver-line/2012/05/04/gIQAP4Rw3T_story.html

 

The opposition basically centers around these themes:
1) It's too expensive, both in terms of the upfront cost and the ongoing maintenance. There's also a guy you'll see posting comments on virtually every Silver Line article talking about how we're overpaying in comparison to "comparable" projects throughout the rest of the country. Some are prone to hyperbole and claim it will "bankrupt" us.
2) The Federal Gov't isn't chipping in for Phase II.
3) Nobody in their right mind would pay for a project like this with such a poor ROI.
4) It's unproven that it will grow business around the stations and bring additional tax revenue to Loudoun. (comparisons to how Metro hasn't done much for PG County abound), and we're only getting 2.5 miles of rail. In other words, we'll get "all of the benefit" even if it ends at the airport.
5) Ridership will be small in terms of Loudoun's total population.
6) Toll Road rates are going to skyrocket if we proceed and push traffic onto an already-congested local network.
7) Those who live in the western part of the county won't benefit and think those of us in the east are basically trying to "spend somebody other people's money".

To the above points, I would argue:
1) Yes, it's expensive, however we're paying 4.8% of the total project whereas we're getting over 10% of the line and about 20% of the new stations. The MWAA is paying for the vast majority of this project with our tolls, and Fairfax is obviously paying for a much larger share than we are. I believe the state has committed to $150 million. And even if it is going to cost more than it should to construct, should we leave all that money on the table from the other parties? In my opinion, leaving all that money on the table from the MWAA, the state, and Fairfax is FAR worse than overpaying for our relatively small share. Additionally, if you look at the estimated annual operating costs for the project, they make up just a few percent of the overall county budget.
2) The Feds chipped in for Phase I. Phase II has no value without Phase I. I view both phases as one overall large project. Viewing Phase II in isolation makes no sense since the main benefit of the project is that it will connect us to the stretch of rail in Phase I (and beyond).
3) Sure the ROI on this project is negative...just like every road we build in this county, just like every school, every library, and on and on. Should we stop building those things too since they won't, "pay for themselves"? That's the definition of a public works project. At least Dulles Rail WILL pay for part of itself through fares. I'm not sure why opponents are completely fine with us routinely dropping $30 million on road projects with a 0% ROI yet hold rail to a different standard.
4) My view is that if the stations end in Fairfax, any large corporations that want to relocate facilities to this area and be near a rail station will choose Fairfax if we don't build into Loudoun. Even though the stretch of rail is short, the difference between a company physically locating in Loudoun vs. Fairfax is the difference between significant tax revenue for us vs. $0 in tax revenue for us. And PG County is a bogus comparison. We have nearly twice the higher education attainment rate in Loudoun compared to PG. In other words, a company relocating here will be near an extremely educated workforce and very low crime environment. Plus, in rush hour traffic, we all know it takes a good 20+ minutes to get from where the 772 station will be to the airport. We DO NOT get all the benefit if rail stops at Dulles.
5) If I remember correctly, daily ridership is projected to be around 2% of Loudoun's total population. There's a big difference between daily ridership and yearly ridership, however. Just because only 2% will use it on a given day, doesn't mean there aren't people who will use it on weekends, or a few times a month, etc. I would be shocked if at the minimum, at least 20-25% of the county population didn't use it at least once throughout any given year.
6) Toll rates are going to skyrocket regardless of Loudoun opting-in or out. They'll be fractionally higher if we do opt-in, but they're not going to magically stay at current rates if we opt-out.
7) Then perhaps we should stop building roads in western Loudoun since I virtually never use them.

Sorry for the long post, but this is an extremely frustrating issue. Opposition to rail seems is extremely vocal and is spreading tenuous arguments at best. As Scott York has pointed out, we have virtually zero additional ways to expand our east/west road capacity. He said there is one small stretch of 7 that could accommodate one additional lane in each direction. That's it. Imagine another 100-200k people moving here in the next decade. They're all going to be on 7, 50, and Waxpool. At least metro gives us another option to absorb some of that capacity. Many folks are also using the inclusion of a PLA as an argument to opt-out. I'm not sure exactly to what degree the PLA will affect costs, but is its inclusion really a reason to opt-out of a project this important?

 

Toll rates are increasing regardless. So "we" the taxpayer pay for the rail regardless if it stops at Dulles or not. The Dulles Toll Road rate increases even though we really won't benefit that much if rail is not extended in to Loudoun County. Plus it will attract more businesses to Fairfax instead of Loudoun, so those of us that would like a shorter commute, spells no increased employment opportunities in Loudoun. Also, we don't benefit from the tax revenue that would come from those business wanting to locate here because of the rail. I support rail in Loudoun.

 

Depending on the time horizon, the ROI would not necessarily be negative, at least according to recent analysis:

http://cra.gmu.edu/pdfs/Loudoun_MetroRail.pdf

Our Supervisor, Shawn Williams, has made public statements indicating he will vote in favor of Metro to Loudoun. It is the Supervisors to the west who need to decide whether they will vote in the best interest of the county, or to represent the views of their constituents, few of whom will be swayed by objective analysis. Democracy at work.

 

I thought that the metro would be right behind Home Depot near Broadlands? No?

 

Never did say that Home Depot is part of Broadlands--I said it was NEAR Broadlands, not IN Broadlands....I just simply asked if Metro is going to be behind there...That's all.

 

Thanks Cavalier, I particularly like your responses to 6 and 7. Tolls will go up every 18 months regardless.

I agree we're running out of transportation options as the population continues to grow here. There are a few small fixes though that would help spread some of the east/west traffic off of 7 and Waxpool to 606 and Glouchester Pkwy: Connect Glouchester with Nokes and connect LCP with 606 at Westwind Dr.

 

I totally agree here....I never take the toll roads....its a total rip-off and I strongly believe that Metro would make a difference here. It would help all around...If I got a job in DC, I would take the metro vice driving. If the board kills any chance of getting it into the county...it will set Loudoun County back for eons all the while Fairfax will still benefit largely due to rail going to Tysons.

 

This is an excellent report. Dr. Stephen Fuller does a great job. I use that GMU site all the time for real estate market stats.

 

Thanks Cavalier... very well (and reasonably) said. Once people latch onto an idea, they will find many angles to justify without really leaving room for a "discussion". I hope to make it to some of these Public meetings as well and want to try and bring my 7yr old as an educational opportunity...

 

I don't want to quote all of Cavalier's explanation, but I thank you for it. I would add this in the CON category: Apparantly the ride time from here to DC is going to be very long, some estimate 90 minutes. Next, I would add that much of our congestion comes from WV commuters who will not be taxed like Loudoun residents, who may or may not use the rail. So what happens when our station gets filled with WV commuters, leaving few seats and parking spaces for Loudoun residents? Also it is presumed that the PLA's add an additional cost equal to half, please somebody check the figures here. Plus this aggravates VA's right to work laws....If the union gets a foothold here, it's a slippery slope is the thinking.

In the PRO category: I think it will cost less to travel to DC, but not wholly convinced of this. It could be less frustrating somehow, not sitting in traffic.

So...who has made a PRO/CON chart? Anybody? Bueller?

 

PLAs generally are deterimental to overall project costs somewhere along the lines of 10-13% based on recent studies.

So, for a $1B project ----->add $100M - $130M in costs.

I have never seen one that has a cost factor of 1.5X, as you noted in your post.

 

Are you saying they are Detrimental, meaning they kill the project budget? What about the other cost over-runs that are sure to happen with WMAA running the show? Who pays that? From what I understand, it's the County taxpayer right now. Fix that and the PLA's and it's likely to be a go. But nobody has put on paper a clear and concise plan showing the PROS and CONS, using the various assumptions, not even LRN, they are all PRO, let's get both sides of the story.

 

The REAL person who pays for the cost overruns is the Toll Road users... Most of the other "partners" have a fixed partnership. If the project suddenly ballons to $8billion then that extra $$ will be paid for by raising the tolls more and more and more.

 

See, I think that stinks! They are trying to force ppl to use the metro or else! More and more in this country our 'choices' are being limited. I'm not getting into a political debate, those of you that know me, know EXACTLY where I stand, but it's reaching critical mass, just like Van Metre forcing their votes down our throat. How about these big developers coughing up a few hundred million??? Whaaaaaa??? Now there's an idea!