Metro Rail - Public Outreac 5/24

Why not take a look at the Lesser report (that Opt-Out uses as one of the major data sources for their "facts") yourself and draw your own conclusions? Throughout the entire report, there is repeated data that states the net fiscal impact on the county for each station will be positive. These projections have been revised up since the 2011 version of the report.

http://www.loudoun.gov/documents/45...Fiscal Impact Analysis_201204131544249109.pdf

Your stance on Metro is clearly decided, so I'm well aware I won't change your mind. But it's extremely misleading for others viewing this thread to point to an Opt-Out document as being factual. It is one opinion, and one I find extremely flawed.

Many partisan groups use their own money or that of their members. That doesn't mean anything. Saying Fuller took a payoff is just a talking point. This is a capitalist society, is it not? Shouldn't he be allowed to be paid to put together reports like the one he did for Loudoun Metro? I didn't realize he was only supposed to work for free.

In the end, nobody can quantify what the future costs/benefits will be for the project. But I'm still continually confused why Metro is held to a different standard as compared to other projects in the county. Let's say it ends up being a money-loser in the end. If that's what defines a successful project vs a failure, I suppose we should stop building roads since none of those pay for themselves. There's an endless list of $25 million and up projects on the county transportation plan. There are a few in the $50-$75 million range. All of which will produce exactly $0 in revenue. All of which add up to hundreds of millions of dollars in losses.

You can only widen roads so much or build so many overpasses. In the end there's always another bottleneck further down the road. At least Metro would provide critical infrastructure that would give us a genuine alternative to roads.

 

You like studies. There is no denying it. Comstock paid for the Fuller Study. $15k is nothing compared to the millions on the line for their development. Let's look at other studies. The Parking Study on the BOS Site estimates approx 4500 parking spaces (2900 in 2 garages at Broadlands and 1600 at Old Ox Rd Station) are needed to meet the ridership at the 2 stations. Currently with a 5 mile radius of the Broadlands station there are 6800 residential properties under development. So the rail won't even meet the growth demand by the time its completed. Another study from the Loudoun Economic Development Council was done to determine the most important factors in attracting new business. The number 1 factor was access to an educated workforce and further the study found that the #1 factor in attracting an educated workforce to a specific community was quality of schools. You want business to come here. It will not be because there are reverse commuters coming out on the Silver Line from Tysons to Loudoun. You want more value. Invest in the schools. Multiple studies show that investment in public schools is the only public fund investment with a positive return. SCHOOLS ARE THE ONLY PUBLIC FUND INVESTMENT THAT PROVIDES A POSITIVE ROI.$1.04-$1.07 for every $1 invested.

 

@Cavalier, Metro to IAD is fine, is close enough to serve our residents with a station at Innovation Ave and the airport. The extra expense cannot be justified, not even over 30 years! A few of us won't be around by then anyway, but I for one don't want to pay the lion's share of the costs via additional property taxes. Even if we don't have to pay a special tax, the 2 miles doesn't make fiscal sense. You didn't answer what business you're in, so I'm guessing you use a lot of theory in your work. Lots of ideas are great in theory, but don't always work out so well. TG4 makes a statement that the schools are a good investment. With the higher density, you can expect to be taxed more to build more schools in *addition* to the metro tax. We'll still have to pay for roads to bring all those free riding WVA commuters to Broadlands. So if you REALLY want to live in an URBAN area with buildings everywhere you look, why are you here? And let's talk for a minute about the Federal Gov't initiative to allow its workforce to telecommute...Many ppl already do this, when this kicks in, the ridership will dwindle and so will the traffic. We moved here to be closer to work, so we shouldn't be punished for doing the wise thing. The pro-rail stance of this is a once in a lifetime opportunity.....to spend our money into eternity, giving all control over costs and turning it over to a union shop with zero accountability. You're nuts if you think this county can afford this without making the most expensive county in the country even WORSE and most cost prohibitive place to live. Thinking 'Loudoun is a wealthy county, they can afford it' is so contrary to capitalism, don't you see that?

 

An exerpt from a recent article, telecommuting nearly doubling in ONE year!:
One encouraging sign came during this year's Telework Week, conducted by the Telework Exchange. The number of employees who pledged to work remotely during the 2012 event reached 69,390, and 62,450 of those were federal workers. That far exceeded the 2011 level, when 39,694 employees pledged overall, and 34,136 of those were federal workers.

The 2010 law requires all federal agencies to establish a uniform telework policy, ensuring that most employees who want to telework are enabled to do so. The act requires federal agencies to develop training programs for teleworkers and managers, to include telework in continuity of operations plans, and to designate a Telework Managing Officer to lead the program at each agency.

This is the future. http://www.technewsworld.com/story/74673.html

 

Do you work for the federal government? I do, and I can tell you the law is not being implemented. Yeah, I "pledge" to telecommute, too. Too bad my organzation won't develop the regulations that would allow me to do so.

I also pledge to make more money in my next job.

 

If you're eligible to work from home, and there is nobody at work to implement, OPM asks that you contact them.

I don't work for the Feds, I'm in the financial industry and the two don't mix well

 

I'm in high-tech. What does that have to do with anything? No, I don't use "lots of theory" in my work.

Again, that's a matter of debate on whether or not the extra expense is justified. I could just as easily argue that it's not worth it for the county to dump hundreds of millions of dollars into further road upgrades with a certain massive negative fiscal impact. And as I mentioned, the study that Opt-Out points to actually shows a net positive fiscal impact to the county. Yes, we'll build more schools, but Metro gives us a better chance at shifting the tax revenue base more toward business revenue instead of such a high mix of residential revenue.

If you're so certain that we're going to have so much WVA traffic driving through here, then ridership will be successful enough that fares will cover a much larger portion of operating costs than previously thought.

I love living here. Metro being here as well isn't going to magically turn Loudoun into an urban area. It will encourage urban development near the stations while much of the landscape of the rest of the county will retain its character. This isn't an either or situation. And as the population grows (which it will do regardless), we'll have an additional east/west artery.

How is this the most expensive county in the country? Take $500k here and then try to buy something even remotely equivalent in Fairfax or Arlington. And people who complain about our tax rate don't understand simple demographics. We have the largest per-capita school-aged population in the area. Twice that of Arlington, and at least 20% higher than Fairfax. That explains the vast majority of the tax rate difference. If you look back in history at Fairfax's tax rates, you'll notice that during its years of fastest growth when demographics were younger and similar to ours now, tax rates there exceeded 1.7% on a regular basis (near a decade).

 

BTW, it sounds as if the MWAA is about to vote to drop the PLA agreement this morning.

 

Ok, so you're in IT, and won't actually use the rail to commute? Maybe for a ballgame once in a while? A concert? Direct monies to DC, not loudoun. This is GREAT for DC.

WVA commuter traffic is all over the toll road and can easily be counted, the issue there is they don't pay ANY VA taxes. And the fares don't even cover half the expense, that's direct from WMATA documents. Keep in mind that you'll contribute millions each year for maintenance as well, but WVA's won't.

Tell me why rail to Dulles isn't close enough? It's certainly closer than it is now. But also tell me, looking at the station location, where will you build all these businesses? The land there is already spoken for with Data Centers and housing. One Loudoun is a done deal. Wouldn't you rather be offering these newly created jobs to loco residents as opposed to ffx residents? I mean, isn't that the REASON for attracting businesses?

One speaker at the meeting said she wanted a 'younger' work force. Hmmm, I read that as 'cheaper' work force. Someone else said they wanted an educated workforce. You're in IT, so I assume you are educated, but apparently not so much as FFX residents?? That's pretty offensive right there.

So the metro supposedly attracts businesses, but we want to employ county residents, it's not like the metro goes around in a circle and drops people off all over the county. Loudoun residents that live and work in loudoun will NOT use this as viable method to get to work. But they will continue to use busses which will suffer from the reduced budgets for roads and busses because the gas tax will be re-routed to metro. BUT loudoun residents who want to take the train to Tysons, Reston or DC can get on at the Rt. 28 station. Like I said, it'll be much closer than it is now, so that's an improvement in their day. That is if they don't have to forfeit their seat to the WVA commuters who pay no taxes for metro. It's a long time to stand on a train, 75 minutes to the city?

It's a circular argument. The BOS is under pressure to make a decision without the information they need to make an educated decision.

I know you're smart, especially if you are a Cavalier. But I'm gonna go out on a limb here and assume that you do some research before you buy anything and try to get the best pricing. The current agreement if fraught with opportunities for MWAA and WMATA to rip us off anytime they feel like it and it's a deal we can't get out of, ever.

There are alternatives: Airline ticket tax, Airport road fees, Developers pay up or shut up, get rid of the union labor, raise fares to ride, not toll road fares, the list goes on, and there just isn't time to do this properly.

 

On the north side of the Greenway, Loudoun Station will have 1 million SF of commercial office space. On the south side of the Greenway, Moorefield Station will have 9.4 million SF of commercial office space. Both will be connected via pedestrian bridges to the Route 772 Station. That's where business will be located.

 

Yes, you mean highrises. Yuck. I wonder what they'll do with the millions of square footage that is already constructed but remains hauntingly vacant right now? What's the vacancy rate? More than 20%? More than 40%?

Stellar.

So Build up Eastern Loudoun and destroy it's beauty, while preserving Western Loudoun, and we pay them for the privilege.

How is this a good deal for anyone that's not a RE agent or a developer?

 

Don't forget-we get to pay additional taxes to pay for the priviledge of "Tysons-a-fying" our community. Can't wait. Are they going to start imposing the special tax district taxes (if it passes) now, years before the metro even arrives?

 

@mdcrim, they don't know, we have to sign the deal to learn what's in it....sound familiar?

 

A Metro stop at IAD does no good for Loudoun residents, in my opinion. Parking fees at the airport will make it unusable for daily commuters. Plus, residents will still have to either pay Greedway fees or sit in traffic on Waxpool to get there. Buses aren't an option either at this time as there is no bus system in place and most all current park and rides are exceeding capacity for Loudoun County transit system. And whether it's by bus or car, you're adding even more time into what is already a long commute for many. It's simply not realistic to think a Dulles station holds any benefit for daily commuters.

And nevermind the fact that regardless of whether Loudoun opts in or opts out, Loudoun residents will still face steep increases on the toll road. I'd rather get some benefit from paying higher tolls.

This is a no-brainer to me. Opt in. But, I'm not trying to change your mind. I know it's made up. Just countering some of your arguments.

 

I agree that the IAD station doesn't provide much value to Loudoun. Two major points:

• Phase II was designed with Rt 772 being the last station, and as such (according to the MWAA) the Dulles station was never designed to accommodate the type of capacity it would have to handle by being at the end of the line.
• More importantly, Phase II has only been approved as currently designed, ending in Loudoun. If we opt-out, the entire phase has to be scrapped and started over again from scratch (from a design and approvals standpoint). That would push the completion date back by at least a few years. In other words, if we opt-in, we may see station in Loudoun by 2017, if we opt-out, there won't be a station at Dulles until at least 2020.

You are exactly right about tolls. They are going to skyrocket no matter what. The difference between us opting in or out is only going to account for a small percentage of the increase. The boat has already sailed on keeping tolls down.


As for those saying they moved here to be close to work, the average person spends maybe 4-5 years at any one job. People change companies all the time. You might be close to your job now, but if you own a home, wouldn't it be nice to stay in Loudoun yet have easier access to a wider number of opportunities in Tysons, Falls Church, Arlington, etc.? Living where you work is often easier said than done. Many people don't want to uproot kids from schools and leave the connections they've made in their neighborhoods.

 

@Lightning, I appreciate that. I want to understand why some think it's a good option, I'm just not there yet.

Parking at IAD is $10, whereas proposed parking at 772 is $6.00. They've promised to ramp up the bus service because they have to. Like I said, this is only 2 stops, so anyone that works and lives in LoCo, won't use it, they still need busses or cars. Anyone that commutes in, will likely need a bus. Anyone that commutes out and chooses to use it does benefit because presumably they can get to work sooner, given that the metro is so much closer than Vienna or FFX Pkwy. Either way, the metro trip is a long one. Remember too there is a stop at Innovation Ave as well. No matter what, traffic will be a nightmare, I'd just prefer it not go through my neighborhood and intermingle with my kids' school busses. Look for Croson, Claiborne, Old Ryan and BRR to be an absolute parking lot heading to 772, even Laurier and Ridgeway will be inundated with vehicle traffic. This is all very sad to me. And I'm wondering how this helps property value? And I really hope and pray that no students will ever be harmed by the additional traffic. It's a valid concern, we have problems with speeding vehicles already.

Anyway, not sure why you'd be paying higher tolls if you use the metro?? Predictions show that few will pay the higher tolls as they move on to the free roadways to avoid said toll increases, decreasing revenue and then increasing taxes to control the deficit.

I have noticed however, that a lot of the pro rail folks are not commuters themselves. It's like the new toy at Christmas that gets played with for a week, then sits in the corner forever more. Too bad we can't do a test run....

 

Very good Cav. The 772 stop has been designed to accomodate 47% of the riders using cars. I think the overflow will be in the lots at Home Depot or Giant or along the streets. It's a big assumption the 53% of the riders won't be using a car, but who knows?

So we all agree that the tolls will be ridiculous. Why then are you willing to give WMATA unlimited ability to continue to raise tolls and parking rates? Every year, something like 5-9% increase. WOW!

Yes, people do change jobs and thankfully technology continues to improve and make us a mobile and virtual society. Not everyone can work from home, but those that can typically thrive. This is all about finding a compromise that works for most, would you consider the last stop at 606? This option still saves millions if not more.

 

All studies aside, I believe building out a well formed transportation system is good for the county and our communities. For once we might actually (barely) be able to say we were a bit ahead of our needs as opposed to years/decades behind.

That said, the economic benefits of this to actual households in the near term are intangible at best and negligible at worst. I'm willing accept that trade-off as long as our BOS doesn't compound the issue by making the near term COST of making this long term investment in our community VERY tangible.

Building a well formed transportation system is a no-brainer. Taxing certain homeowners for something that is indirectly beneficial to the majority of the community shows no brains. Or perhaps a savvy move by opponents to divide the support base for this project by presenting an impossible choice to the local community.

 

FYI: MWAA dropped the union preference in the PLA.

http://www.wtop.com/654/2892068/Concession-made-on-Dulles-Rail

 

Well said. I agree with you. I am all for building a well formed transportation system but not for paying it out of my pocket when the majority that will be using the system will not have to.