Housing Prices

Well I hope we never have to test it!!!!

My point was more to the fact FEMA is part of the Home Land Security and for whatever reason their response to the Gulf coast was unacceptable.

If you are going to have one agency which I think in theory is a good idea and could be cost effective, but the agency as a whole must respond to any emergency, natural or by mankind.

It really comes down to strong leadership and not having too many ineffective chefs and not enough cooks involved as we had during the beginning of the hurricane which has everyone passing the buck for the problems created. With no strong central figure the system moves way too slow.

Lee J Buividas

 

I just checked the amount of homes for sale in Ashburn area we went from less then 200 homes for sale not long ago to more then 500 homes for sale. Leesburg and actually the whole DC area the amount of homes for sale are rising at the speed of light.

The best indicator for the market are closings not sales not for sale just closings. Builders sometimes will show a lot of sales but a better indicator is how many do they close. I expect many kickouts (people backing out of a sale in the near future. Everything thing you hear is from the recent past which was very good, the real story will be the coming months and years.

Lee J Buividas

 

You might want to take a look at these projections from the Census Bureau for the next 30 years. Those 2.7 million additional people are going to have to live somewhere...



Yes, there may be short-term fluctuations in housing, but come on. I don't think we have even seen the beginning of what prices are going to do in the next 30 years. We're talking about a 38-percent increase in the population. I'm guessing that the greatest increase within that number is in northern Virginia.

 

[quote

We need a huge tax on any vehicle that does not get 30 miles to the gallon and increasing the gas per miles significantly every few years and of course anything that does not use energy efficiently most be taxed heavy. Painful in the beginning but it is the only long term solution, more oil is not the long term answer. Using energy efficiently is.


[/quote]

I'm not sure if this is the same person who, in another post, made a comment about huge taxes on cars that don't get at least 30 miles to the gallon. I find that comment quite annoying and just plain wrong. Not everyone can fit their families SAFELY into a car that gets that sort of gas mileage! Some people have no choice but to drive a minivan and I don't know of any that get gas mileage like that. I cannot safely put my kids (2 in car seats) and another child, safely into any car getting that sort of mileage...so I should be over-taxed? I don't think so!

 

NeilZ, you might want to check the stats on how much land had to be subtracted from their "calculations". Staff's first report on the whole CPAM issue got sent back for some revisions after they admitted that yes, they hadn't subtracted for already built land, and yes, they hadn't subtracted for any land under conservation easement, and yes, they hadn't subtracted for unbuildable land (steep slopes, wetlands, etc) and yes, etc etc etc.

Another thing to look at is the cost projections and how they are skewed to the max: You know how we hear that a school seat costs over $11K? Well, last year L2day did a breakdown by school--$11K was actually the range between lowest and highest. Little River was the least at 4-something, and Middleburg was the most at 16-something. Aldie came in second at 12~. Seems like a bunch of the protesters down here moved into big homes on 1+ acre by-right lots within the last year, expect their kids to go to Aldie (which is why school boundaries can't change, so no new ones--or houses--may be built), and want to know why the developers can't just fix the roads for their commute to DC, but not build any houses at all. You go, Sherlock. A standard eastern school is much more economical per child than the 200 or fewer seats preferred by some out west.

The same thing is occurring now that the public hearing is finally approaching on the Upper Broad Run and Upper Foley subarea CPAMs (filed about 1 year ago, and at the polls in November a guy from Lovettsville was at my precinct with last year's fake petition saying it was all just going to happen with no citizen input--there have been a number of meetings in the past year, and more to come before any vote).

I've seen leaflets, a new fake petition, and a PEC press release in the last two weeks that say 15,000, 28,000, 34,000, and totals of 81 or 100K additional. I think what they're doing is the same thing: Take what is proposed for the 2 planning subareas, take the highest density, and then multiply that by the total acreage/per square miles of the entire Transition Zone (without subtracting existing development etc) and saying that it "could" bring etc.

The best thing to do is look up the applications, see where they are in the process, and then keep an eye out. The PEC is literally foaming at the mouth down here to try to create a workable angry mob to delay the public hearing, but they did get another info session agreed to at the last Planning Com meeting--let's see if that suits them. I'm betting...NOT.

Barbara Munsey, from South Riding.

 

Barbara,

this weeks Leesburg Today talks about this again and the costs associated with any rezoning. Frankly, the number of houses bothers me, low or high. Then there's the over $200 Million that gets foisted on the Loudoun taxpayer.

These things need to be looked at, not glossed over.

Neil Z.
Resident since 1999

 

with two in car seats and one other, I'd guess you're already over-taxed [)]

 

NeilZ, my point down here (where the solution is to wish it was 20 years ago) is that it is better to plan than meet it to death and end up with more **** by-right/no mitigation whatsoever. That doesn't fix anything, AND continues to make it worse.

I would bet you that most of the developers and landowners have more than one investor who is ready to go, and that means by-right or rezoned. I don't think we can afford any more attrition, and I am sick to death of people who moved in last week and honestly expected to be the last house on the block.

I don't think it should be glossed over, but neither do I think it can even be discussed when all that is presented is a worst case scenario, in a very shrill tone. And that's all we get from the people who wish NONE of us were here (but would never admit it, since they need to use us to make darn sure no more of us come).

How does one buy the claim that the naysayers are NOT no-growth, when every single project that is proposed over the years is the wrong thing, in the wrong place, at the wrong time? The Greenvest proposal is the largest, and is a 20-year projection. The houses we see today going up were approved before this board voted on anything, and the traffic comes from two places: the people who think it is okay for THEM to live 30-40-50 miles from their job and who resent the hell out of us for moving onto their commute, and the people who said the heck with this and bought in Winchester or WVa. How do we deal with the fact of them? Where are THEY going to go to get out of OUR lives?

Barbara Munsey, from South Riding.

 

Neil, have you run the numbers? The ones you quote give a 9.7M infrastructure cost per home at 1500 homes (neither of which is a true figure).

The 5500 additional, at a total cost of 736M, is total moonshine: If you take their figure of 9.7M per home and apply it to 5500, you come up with a figure that is over 53.5B. Oops.

Are they referring to one time infrastructure costs (no such thing) on the by-right only? Even if they are attemtpting to do so, staff's numbers don't add up.

Barbara Munsey, from South Riding.

 

I guess my family is the exception. We moved here from Reston and it took us over a year of looking for a re-sale in Ashburn before we finally bit the bullet and put a contract on new construction which closed five years ago next month. We didn't want a new house but during that period we were only able to put an offer on one house in a year and a half and were outbid despite our offer of $20,000 over the asking price. Inventory was so low there was little to choose from.

We moved to Ashburn because both my job and my husband's job were in Ashburn. While I was laid off and chose to stay home with the kids, my husband is still with the same company here in Ashburn. His commute has grown much longer in terms of time thanks to increased traffic but we really like it here.

Thanks for all of the great information on the CPAMs, Barbara.

 

Lets make it simple only two ways out to the major work centers rt 50 and toll road from our area = nightmare of traffic

I don't see any fixes to rt 50 or the toll road that will even begin to accommodate the future traffic and they cannot handle the traffic at rush hour now. no matter what they do to the roads in between these two major arteries. Hellooooo!!! Airport not going to build any major road through itself.

Wait to all the multifamily hits hi gear. Here is what we have rt 50 toll road rt 7 major east west and 28 if you can get to it and 15 historical for north south. Potomac river stops any reality of getting out of here going north. Does not take a rocket scientist to figure the traffic picture is hopeless for our area no matter what and just think what is in store when future developments are complete. We have not begun to talk about the traffic coming thru here from West Virginia and they are more pro development then Loudoun will ever be. Solution, move out before it is too late as I am doing take the money and run if you still can. It is becoming a nightmare for me and I don’t even drive in rush hour traffic. This area is beginning to strangle on its own success.

Bottom line this is the beginning of Dante's Inferno.

Lee J Buividas

 

Oh lets add Waxpool and it backs up now at Loudoun county parkway during evening rush hour the bottleneck is not gone just moved up road from the 28 area, add another light at shell station at the skating rink and I see another light at the embassy suites hotel in the future. Future connections to old ox road and sterling blvd are only going to bottle neck at 28 and by the time we see them they will be overwhelmed from the day they open. Even when they improve the connection from the main toll booth east to the toll road after you finally get through the toll booth. The eastern toll road is already over capacity at rush hour very little land for improvement ever rail is a long ways off. 66 even with improvements will still be hopeless and what is that joke going into dc the two lanes each side. Even if they start plans to improve that right now it is a million years off before finished and will be overloaded the day it opens if ever. Rt 7 goes right through Tyson’s corner not much help there no matter how much they do to it to Loudoun county. The western part of Loudoun has virtually no plans and building in West Virginia is creating a nightmare for that area no matter what they decide for density in the western part of Loudoun. Loudoun seems to ignore what is happening in west Virginia and that could be a traffic tsunami coming into and through Loudoun there goes the way of life in western Loudoun no matter what they do and it is already happening to the roads out there during rush hour are starting to look like the backups close in, with no fixes in sight that will have any meaningful impact. Hey how about some more roundabouts for traffic control?? This area is hopeless for any help for traffic congestion and I am sure the oil companies love us for all the extra gas we use here in traffic that is why we have some of the highest gas prices in the country lately to thank us. Yep the future is very bright for this County. Right now we have seen the best Loudoun County will ever be for quality of life in our life time and our children’s lifetime. Maybe RV’s should be the solution; you live as you move through the traffic. No time wasted in traffic you live the traffic.

Sounds like a Si Fi movie to me.

Oh did I forget the years of study time for traffic improvement????

Hmmmmm sounds like life is just going to be dandy out here in the future with all the improvements in the works and projected growth in the stratosphere. That growth will never happen if there is not a better solution to traffic then what is currently in the works and proposed. Someone would have to be insane to move into that future.

Lee J Buividas

 

Thanks to Tech Head and others for the informative data...means much more than simple opinions and such.

(As an aside, Lee, this isn't meant to be mean, but if you want people to not only read, but understand your posts, you gotta use some punctuation! And a cup of cheer wouldn't hurt either!)

Here's a follow up to my original post. From a historical perspective, it seems that in any region the "new" areas remain hot for awhile...but after a certain period of time (is that 5 years, 10?) as new construction moves further out/west, then those originally hot areas begin to seriously cool off...as demand follows the new areas.

Sort of like the proverbial concept of the "old mall" in town where people used to shop when it was new...but then it gets old and gives way to the new mall where all the people flock.

So if you were beginning from scratch right now, would you buy in Broadlands...or would you buy in Brambleton..or even further west where the newer construction will be? Will our homes and townhomes begin to erode in value at a greater rate after they hit the 10-yr-old mark, etc?

 

Let's not forget that families used to be much larger- often 5+ kids and houses much smaller, as well as CARS being much smaller too. Everything today- is 'bigger & better' (the 'better' I am not so sure).

 

I appreciate what you said about my punctuation and I would certainly not take your comment as mean. I also appreciate you did not comment on my spelling at the same time, which is horrible and I know it. I do draw pretty pictures all day long as my kids would say when they were little, so hopefully that makes up for the rest, just a little.

I write from my thoughts, which as you can see ramble a bit from thought to sentence or at least my idea of a sentence. Thank God I do have people that proof read and correct my ramblings into proper English and form when it comes to work. My wife being the head proof reader , and no she does not get involved with my posts on the several forums I subscribe to or anything else other then business. Smart woman only concerned about the money.

Thanks for your concern, unfortunately my posts will probably be not much better unless money is involved which ends up in Dalyn's (my wife) control anyway.

Lee J. Buividas

Believe it or not I did make an "A" in a creative writing class in college as you can guess the professor did not grade much on spelling and grammar.

 

I find some of your grammar and punctuation quite creative

 

On second thought Lee just stay the way you are it is better not to always live by the rules anyway because they can be too restrictive and God knows we need more creative people around here so in honor of you im not using any punctuation in this post though i find it difficult to allow erros in spelling so perhaps the real hangup is my own perfectionism heres to breaking the rules once in a while i just hope you arent right about home prices and all the negative thoughts we have so much to be thankful for in this area

 

Now Now Now I did not respond to be mean spirited and I don't take offense to your last remarks!

I am not trying to spread doom and gloom. Reality is reality and my remarks are not meant to be mean spirited only from my past experiences living thru 5 recessions. Houston Dallas Austin Southern California and moved back here during the last one.
I know several people here that made a fortune off other people's misfortune in real estate in the past and are waiting in the wings to do it again. Toll Brothers could not break into this market until the beginning of the last recession and tried for years.

The road system must be re-thought the current thinking will lead to a disaster. Not doom and gloom just reality. People enjoy living here because of current conditions and things can stay wonderful here but this community must as a whole make that happen. Nothing wrong with more development as long as the offsite roads, all the way to the work centers, is brought up to handle it. The solution for rt50 is not enough needs, to be a limited access highway to 66 not more lights it needs interchanges. A major parallel road near the toll road to 28 is a must. Now is the time before land becomes impossible to obtain. In Texas all toll roads have free parallel access roads as do the freeways in the cities. You can drive free along side the toll road as long as you don't mind the lights for free.

There is more of a good old boy network here in a modern way then you ever seen in Texas. Notice you don't see many custom builders here or developments they can build in, everything owned by the big boys as well as most of the land. Not much competition. Town homes replace starter homes here unlike many parts of the country which would have backyards for the kids to play.

The toll road will become another ugly gateway if projects like the data centers continue to be built along it. Loudoun started with a clean slate in the eighties and now it will become ruined from what it could be because of greed and mostly from poor planning such as all power lines need to be under ground not just in the puds. Creative solutions to traffic that will work. Example look at the intersection of Ashburn village drive and farmwell hunt the village side looks nice all the way to 7 the other side toward the broadlands is beginning to look like crap. It does not take one who cannot spell and punctuate to know why??? This is repeated throughout the county and I see no end to it. We need not only smart growth we need beautiful growth here. It can be done with smart planning. We will end up with pockets of beautiful growth connected by ugly smart growth. Be pro active and have vision before there is a problem not reactive. Not difficult for a group to organize for beautiful growth with a war room with a large interactive map of the county to coordinate the growth. The major developers have done a better job for beautiful growth then the county has with control of how to tie it all together in-between. This county is at the crossroads of what it will become smart ugly growth and ugly congested growth. or Smart beautiful growth. Just all those ugly gas stations springing up on prime property at least in the past in the farms and village they did a better job integrating them in then is happening now. We are going backwards at times not forward.

Good cheers to all for beautiful smart growth.

Lee J Buividas

You also took my comments wrong about my response to you about my spelling and punctuation. I was not trying to make fun of what you said but you did in your second post. Now let’s get along and be proactive to keep this county from heading to disaster which it surely will on its present course.

 

Lee,
I agree with your concerns about the traffic problems. It seems the traffic will only get worse not better in the near future. Just wondering what do those county planners think? Have you talked to them ask if there is a plan for this issue?

 

This was printed in Leesburg Today

All I can say, where were these idiots in the nineties when this place was falling apart!!
What is and is right now destroying the market are these Ridiculous prices, they always do. Unless I am missing something here and people in the goverment and private industry are giving away homes or giving out 300% raises so people can buy a home here. One of the sales people for one of the largest builders in the country right here in this area said when I asked how sales are going. He replied with a twinkle in his eye "looks we are coming out soon with a new product line" I don't think he meant the same price or higher priced homes.

Lee J Buividas


Business News
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County DED Says Property Value Slip Unlikely
Dusty Smith

Sep 16, 2005 -- The Loudoun County Department of Economic Development’s latest Quarterly Economic Review suggests that a real estate market correction in the area remains unlikely, much less a full-fledged bursting of the bubble, despite warnings that real estate may take a tumble nationally.

“A review of economic date demonstrates that the Washington region may be less likely to experience a housing market correction than other areas,” the quarterly report states, pointing to the region’s consistent job growth, low unemployment continued demand for housing as the population continues to climb.

Loudoun in particular, where an average of 1,000 new people arrive each month, may also experience insulation from real estate devaluation because of job growth and low unemployment, currently about 2.2 percent, according to the report.

In conclusion, the report suggests that, while a real estate correction is likely in many markets, Loudoun and the DC region remain less susceptible.

“Corrections in housing prices in particular markets are not only possible, but likely,” the report states. “However, being located in the nation’s leading employment growth center, having tight labor markets, and benefitting from substantial population [growth] make declines regional and local housing prices in the near future unlikely.”