Housing Prices

Lee....Ever been to L.A. or San fran? The housing costs there remain astrronomical even with traffic worse than this area .

 

Not only have I been to LA and San Francisco I lived in southern California for many years including a lot of the nineties when housing prices plummeted out there. My builder buddies out there say it is going to happen again. Don't forget I am in this business and I hear the way it really is not the propaganda. Like Toll giving out that crap on TV that he does not believe, but if he says what he really believes his stock would plummet like it did before when he said some negative stuff about the housing market possibly crashing. Just like the idiot we have for President staging that news conference yesterday with our military and getting caught at it. I did not see fox news report much on that like the real news did.

All the land and surrounding land where mci sits the regency, and on a on was bought with vulture funds during the last recession here and they are friends of mine. These are real investors, not those crazies lately that have bought up homes hoping to flip them and are now going to pay a huge price for their stupidity. If you want to be a vulture you buy way into the recession not during the peak when things seem rosy rosy. This happens every time.
It was also announced this morning Northrop Grumman are going to lay off a ton of people in this area.

Wait to baby Bush starts cutting government spending because of a multiple of factors.

Yes there will be another boom here and that is way way off possibly the recovery will not even start for 5 to 6 years. In case you all want to know the recession has not hardly begun. What happens inflation starts creeping in as it is now with energy prices which temporarily raise prices such as those nasty heating bills we all are going to get soon then goods go up because of high energy cost then people stop buying then prices start to ease down then then gain speed in going down then we are in a full blown recession. Does not happen all at once and we even see prices go up a little after a drop then they notch even lower then before then a slight price increase and buying again then notch lower and lower following this pattern for years, to finally prices stabilize at a much lower price from where all this started. Believe me there will be a lot of money to be made in a recession if you buy at or near the bottom, unfortunately anyone who bought over the last few years is going to have to hold on for many many years to break even or see a little profit unless they get very very lucky. I was talking with a few builder friends of mine a couple of days and we were saying how the people that sold a few months ago got the last of the big bucks to be made during this cycle.

Lee J Buividas

 

Go to this link
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/fyi/2005/021005fyi.html
It's an interesting article. It explains how the national economy affects real estate prices but also how each market has it's own factors. The biggest areas of boom and bust have historically been areas that rely on just one industry such as oil or defense contractors. Our area has a wider range of industry such as government, high tech, research, telecom, academic, etc. so historically the economic impact is not as great if there is a downturn in one or two sectors.
I don't think we will continue to see 20% per year but I don't see doom and gloom either.

 

First, 400 jobs is not "A ton" considering how many people NG employs in the area. Second, they will only cut jobs if not enough people take the early out/retirement incentive. Third, they are cutting because they accelerated production in the 1st half of the year hoping to get more business in the 2nd half (which did not happen).

Please stop trying to sensationalize everything you post. My builder friends asked me to pass this along! [}]

 

Funny Lee...... I also lived in California in the 90's and was there for the bottom of the market and actually sold in 97 at a loss to move here. I also see that that same house less than 10 years later, is valued now at three times what I sold it for .....even with the horrible traffic. Prices may correct or even go down but, eventually the supply will not keep up with the demand and in the long run Real Estate, especially in markets such as these, will always appreciate.