Housing Sales are getting even more Scary

Over half the sales in Loudoun during Jan. are distressed sales. Almost half were distressed sales in Dec.

http://realdiablog.typepad.com/loudounstats/

And we know with the lower property assessments our tax rate has to go up to pay for the Rolls Royce school budget.

If homes keep going into foreclosure at an ever higher rate and the economy tanks. I don't think the school system is going to have this huge increase in kids like they think they will.

It is just getting worse by the day including the stock market just going down down down and the largest Federal deficit ever.

I don't see how a few hundred or thousand dollars is going to do much to stimulate the economy.

I think these investors in these foreclosed homes may get themselves into trouble like the house flippers did a few years ago.

 

Scary is believing everything you read and then forwarding it on as fact. Not that these numbers aren't accurate, but I'd like to see a little more credibility than "T's" post on some random internet blog.

 

Hey look, more doom and gloom by Lee. :indiff2:

 

is Fairfax in the same boat? Hope not- we have friends selling a town house in springfield- and if their market isn't suffering like Loudoun's they can get a great deal here!

always a silver lining somewhere...

 

A housing crisis can be defined as not having enough affordable housing. That's what we had before, when prices were ridiculously high. It looks like now at least home prices are beginning to readjust to where they should be.

It's only alarming because so many got used to unnatural appreciation every year, and others bit off way more than they could chew.

The silver lining is that this is an excellent time to buy with lower prices and low interest rates

 

Come on, I liked having my house appreciate by 18% per year.:boogie:arty::happyclap::love:

 

How know how much an silver lining we have here.

I really don't want to sound alarmist or doom and gloom here.

The big problem here that differentiates from the saving and loan crisis which caused the real big down turn last time.

Is these loans are sub prime and where packaged with good ones then basically sold on wall street. The difference here is the trigger when the loan goes up can be today or a ton of years out there. So it is hard to get an handle on this when it will end then stabilize and then very slowly. Silence there is no such thing as a normal housing market ha ha Believe me.

While this is all happening wall street is going to hell because of it and our national deficit is going through the roof.

I will tell you all what if this stimulus package really works and stays that way I through the HH in Sept at my house with a live band and everything is on me.

How about that T8man the sept HH is on me if this stimulus package works. Some one smarter then me will have to be able to tell us at that time the stimulus is working.

 

Lee, shhhhhhh!
The more you point it out, the more it will be true!

 

According to the Dulles Area Board of Realtors, they think the market may have bottomed out. We are seeing sales inside the beltway stabilize. It may take a while for it to trickle out here. I guess people will buy closer in first.... Foreclosures generally don't make the market as far as assessments and appraisals are concerned.

 

The market is not going to stablize for at least another year. And its just going to stagnate. The interest rate cuts do nothing but allow people to get cheap short term loans. And if you have noticed they have not dropped much because banks are hurting. The long term longs like the 30yr fix are controlled by the bond market and the risk associated with the loans. They arent going to get much lower either. Even with the jumbo loan caps higher, the rates for the that amount of money will still stay high. Again too much risk associated with giving out more money. So anyone thinking that we have hit bottom is just plain nuts. Until housing matches income we will just sit in these state of stagnation. The median family income in this area is in the upper 90s while the average home is still in the low 600s. Now I am not a doom and gloom guy like Lee, but when you look at the numbers, things are pointing to more bad times.

FYI Realtors have told me for 2 years that things have bottomed out. Anything to make a sale right?

 

http://loudounextra.washingtonpost.com/news/2008/feb/13/home-sales-prices-tumble-january/?latest


When the Dulles Area Association of Realtors start giving out these kind of statistics. What I think is happening is people have held back trying to sell their homes until the first of the year. Further and this why I say we have years to go is the fact every time there will be a slight up tick that creates a signal that things are getting better and then the market gets glutted again with other people putting their homes on the market. I said years ago and I have seen this in every housing recession. There becomes all these false hopes and the market may notch up slightly then notches even lower and repeats this cycle until over on over. Now we see the average sales price even going lower and lower.

Good time to see the county to have your adjustment adjusted. People that will get get clobbered are the people buying foreclosures for investments that don't have several years of deep pockets. Just like the home flippers got clobbered eventually when the market turned down. It is the economy stupid!!!!!! Especially loudouns economy!!!!! This year we are going to see commercial properties go south big time.

 

I wouldn't believe everything you read in the Washington Post!! There are areas in No. Va that are doing Ok. They just reported that D.C. sales were up. The closer in the better the sales seem to be. The main difference this time around is employment and the economy are strong. The investors will do ok as the people being shorted out still need a place to live. Add to this the thousands of new jobs being added, The military is adding around 19,000 over 5 years, the new administration will be coming, Loudoun One, The Hughes center etc...

 

I don't believe everything in the Washington Post but I am in the business as is my wife. Having said that and most of my friends are either builders or something to do with real estate. Been through six housing recessions in the business. I just express my opinions based on what I see and occasionally post a link that agrees with my opinion. No more no less. I will add if we don't fix Loudoun's transportation system we will projects canceled or changed in scope dramatically including One Loudoun. The military jobs will help mostly the 95 corridor south to where the cheaper homes are and closer to their jobs. Certainly will not do much for Loudoun's economy.

 

I wouldnt believe anything that someone tells me that is associated in real estate. They want and need it to do well. Trying to put a postive spin on statisics (which people in the real estate industry do) does not increase the publics confindence. They been saying things like this for 2 years now and guess what the market still sucks.

Also it doesnt matter how many jobs you add. I heard this same non-sense from several people in the buisness of selling homes. And again they have said this every year. Sorry, what matters is affordability. Companies are not pay salaries that cover 600k + homes. Until we see a match of income to home prices things will not recover.

 

I think recovery is not going to be matching of income to home prices rather than matching of home prices to income, which is what we are seeing happen. It really does suck for those of us who bought in the peak years but I think the reality of it is the only recovery we will see is the undoing of unsustainable growth in real estate prices.

 

Add to this the fact Sprint is moving to Kansas City so there goes that reston campus and Yahoo may buy AOL which most likely would mean most of what is left of AOL would be gone. I doubt they would stay here.

I want to hear some good big time business news for our area.

Moorefield has already said without metro they will scale way back their plans. So hellooooo to more flex industrial which is devouring the countryside, could we see the moorefield property covered in industrial???? Loudoun station has applied to build an transit center on their property I guess until the economy comes back and to see if metro is really coming out here. At least it is not another flex building ha ha ha ha ha Comstock who is developing Loudoun Station is very close to bankruptcy anyway, barely holding on.

We need roads and stop junking up the landscape with junk developments that bring in few high paid workers and tons of trucks. So what was once and still has some hope left to keep some of eastern Loudoun beautiful.

 

Yes either way one must happen. But no, houses are still not matching income. I dont think people will be much more willing to lower prices. So we are going to need both to happen which is going to take a couple of years. As I have said numerous times, real estate over the long term isnt the greatest investment. Statisically it performs .3 better then inflation.

 

Does the seller really have much control over that? I'd think their only choice is to sell or not to sell. How high, or low, would seem to be a factor of the buyers. Certainly you will have potential sellers that opt to ride it out rather than sell low but you will also have sellers that have no choice but to sell. Those sellers are only going to get what the market is willing to pay and the respective sale prices will reflect in everyone's home value.

 

I think we pretty much have gone through the sellers that had no choice. I'm not going to say that you wont occasionally see a seller like that but, the trend I have seen lately are houses just sitting on the market. (with the seller putting their foot down in regards to price.) We'll get a better look at things as the spring market heats up. I still feel prices will go down but I dont think we will see the decreases that was witnessed last year. I believe things are just going to stagnate for a few years.

 

Moorefield Station was a farm, e i e i o.
Metro Station went away, e i e i o.
With a flex flex here, a flex flex there
Here a flex, there a flex, everywhere a flex flex
Moorefield Station was a farm...eeeee iiiii eeeeeee iiiiii ooooo!